Prof. De Kai demonstrates the interactive visualization of the simulation. Prof. De Kai and his multidisciplinary team’s simulation results on universal mask-wearing have signi cant implications for policy decision-makers and the public globally. The preventative role of mask-wearing s COVID- lockdowns began to ease in many countries and regions in spring , an international interdisciplinary team co-convened by Prof. De Kai, Computer Science and Engineering, released a timely study with signi cant implications for decision- makers and the general public globally on the importance of adopting mask-wearing as a preventative measure. The collaborative team found that universal mask-wearing does play a major role in suppressing the spread or a second wave of the virus. Simulation results indicated if % to % of the public adopted masking on about day a er an outbreak, before lockdown measures were li ed, the number of new COVID- infections could be slowed signi cantly. This in turn would help to avoid a second wave of cases. However, if only half the population wore masks or there was a delay (for example, to day ), then signi cant slowing of the virus spread became unlikely. Along with Prof. De Kai, an arti cial intelligence expert, the researchers comprised an economist, computational molecular biologist, medical doctor/PhD, and behavioral scientist from France, Estonia, the UK, and Finland. The team produced two theoretical models to predict the impact of mask-wearing over time. The rst extended the standard epidemiological SEIR model* to forecast the e ects of mass mask-wearing. The second introduced an AI-inspired agent-based model, which simulates infections occurring from contact between individuals in physical space. When mask e ectiveness was also taken into account, the e ects were the same, even with inexpensive non-medical or homemade masks with only % e ectiveness. Modeling results were validated and compared against empirical data from regions that at that time had best managed COVID- outbreaks, such as Hong Kong and 19 IN FOCUS Taiwan, where wearing masks in public was culturally acceptable or government policies advised people to do so. This comparison showed a near perfect correlation between early universal masking and successful suppression of COVID- case growth rates and/or the rates of reduction from peak daily case growth. In contrast, areas that did not implement such measures have needed to maintain a strict societal lockdown. “Locking down our noses and mouths is far preferable to locking down our full bodies inside our homes,” Prof. De Kai said. “The cost of masks, including educating populations how to properly make and wear masks, is negligible in comparison to the large economic and human costs of increased infection rates.” The study, “Universal Masking Is Urgent in the COVID- Pandemic: SEIR and Agent-based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations” was published as an e-print on arXiv, a leading open-access online archive, in April . Its ndings were subsequently incorporated into a white paper by the team entitled “Universal Masking to Restart Society and Save Lives”. The research has also been extensively reported online and in the mass media worldwide, including Forbes and Vanity Fair, as well as locally. * A model in which the population is grouped into S for susceptible, E for exposed, I for infectious, and R for recovered or deceased. A Visit http://dek.ai/masks all to explore all the universal masking project’s public resources, including articles, videos, and online interactive simulator Watch Prof. De Kai explain his mask-wearing research further on http://dek.ai/maskvideo Find out more
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